b.Terrain: Wooded and patchy boggy terrain channel Armd manoeuver and provide concealed AT ambush sites. Major water obstacles designated as border and lake north. Heavily forested areas provide effective concealment, and will reduce overall rate of march, and can reduce observation and fields of fire to approximately 500 meters. Areas lacking heavy forestation can provide observation and fields of fire from 2-3 KM. E28/A7 major LOC however good routes north-south and east-west.
c.Weather: Heavy Rain likely to persist or at least 6 hours. Visibility 2400km, heavy-winds affecting Aviation support. No impact on sensor capabilities.
d.Vital Ground. All Bridge crossing points along border (within Area FALCON NAI 1/1-1/8). River banks are too steep for BMP/BTR to exit water and therefore Russian forces would require to conduct an opposed river crossing with two ferries to bridge the river.
e.Key Terrain. Area between NAI 1/4 – 1/6 provides sufficient concealment & cover to enable Russian forces to establish a SBF base to defend any opposed river crossing operation into Lithuania.
f.General Situation. It has been almost a month since the clash in SE Lithuania between TF-32 and Russian backed Insurgents and Russian SoF. Russia has claimed that the events of about four weeks ago, was entirely the fault of Lithuania and NATO. Tensions remain the highest since the peak of The Cold War. All the Baltic and Scandinavian countries are starting to reinforce their borders with Russia and despite calls from the UN SEC GEN, Russia refuses to cancel it’s latest ZAPAD exercise, which Russia states involves upwards of 90k troops, although NATO believe the actual figure is much higher at around 190k. In this tense situation, the war of words continues and the risk of conflict through miscalculation grows ever more likely.
g.Situation Enemy Forces:
1.CoA:Two(2) days ago, Russian forces began mobilising for the ZAPOD exercise in Kaliningrad, in the vicinity of Nesterov along Route E28/A7. While, they are declared forces as part of the ZAPOD Exercise, they could easily form part of the initial force to cross Lithuanian border if so desired. Russian strategic intent seems unclear, but there remains a significant risk that this mobilisation may be a precursor to an attack to cut of Vilnius from E and NE, including Kaunas.
2.There have been no reports of Russian forces moving across the border. However, should they choose to do so, a likely crossing point is at Chernyshevskoye-Kybartai, (AREA FALCON), 14 km to our west, an area where Russian SoF have previously infiltrated Lithuanian territory. Russian covert RECON ops have already likely to have taken place and any border incursion is likely to be rapid and part of a pre-determined plan.
3.Disposition: Composition: Russian force composition in the area of FALCON are reported to consist of a Coy Gp element of a BTG from the 79 Guards Separate Mechanized Infantry Bde; a combination of Infantry (including Snipers and ATGM teams), and armoured Recon and IFV vehicles. This includes BRDM-2, BTR-80 and some BMP-2/3. There has been one report of T72B3 being reported, however, this has not been confirmed. Russian air activity has significantly increased in the last 12 hours with HIND & HIP flights regularly patrolling the border. Russian AD batteries are on high alert.
i. Situation Friendly Forces.
1.JEF, host nation and other NATO forces have been activated and are rapidly deploying forces along the border. Article V has NOT been declared and all forces operate under Lithuanian Law less agreed national exemptions.
2.Currently, the Lithuanian TF-18 is providing a limited Screen in Area FALCON with three Scorpion C/S; they are only covering the assessed most likely border crossing points (BCP). Lithuania is still considering whether to prepare Bridges In Area FALCON for demolition; currently all are still operational and are able to carry the weight of both Russian & NATO Armoured Vehicles.
j.Rules of Engagement. NOTHING IN ROE LIMITS YOUR RIGHT TO DEFEND YOURSELF AND YOUR UNIT.
1.You have the right to use force to defend yourself against attacks or clear threats of attack.
2.Hostile fire may be returned effectively and promptly to stop a hostile act.
3.If OWN forces or those under their protection are attacked, then minimum force should be used under the circumstances and proportional to the threat.
4.We are not at war and in an allied nation, uncalled for destruction of civilian property will not be accepted.
5.Under NO circumstances are you allowed to cross the border, or risk crossing the border, so as not to provoke Russian forces or give them an excuse to start hostilities.
k. TF-48 TASKORG;
a)HQ Sect (1xWarrior, 1x BULLDOG/M113)
b)1 FOO Sect (1 x FOV90)
c)1x Sustainment PLT (medic, fuel, Ammo and Recovery/Mechanic)
2.2 x Recce PLT
a)6 x Scimitar
3.A Coy 1 Rifles Combat Team (CT): (-)
a)3 x Armoured Infantry (AI) PLT (Each 4 x Warrior)
b)1 x Tank Troop (4xCR2)
c)1 x AT PLT ( 3 x Warrior (12 x Javelin)
d)1 x Mortar Sect ( 2 x M1064A3 in BULLDOG)
l. T-48 Attachments and Detachments:
1.1 x ENG Sec (4 x BULLDOG)
2.1 x AD Sect (3 x Avenger HMMWV
3.1 x TIGER AH Flt ( 2 x AC)
4.1 x Battery M109A3 ( 2×3 Tubes), with supplytruck
5.1 x TUAV
TF-48 MISSION TF-48 is to Rapidly Advance to Area FALCON and conduct RECON of border for 48 hours ITO identify and report possible Russian border incursions and likely tactical plan. BPT DELAY any Russian Adv into Lithuania within boundaries for one hour between PL FALCON and PL HAWK
2. Mission and Tasks
a.Extended Purpose. Provide warning of Russian likely incursion and DELAY by 1 hour any Russian attack to enable JEF to deploy to MDA.
1.Rapidly Adv to Area FALCON
2.Establish Temp FOB
4.IDENTIFY & Report Russian tactical positions, equipment types, morale and if possible, tactical plans for incursion into Lithuanian territory;
5.DETAIN any Russian forces encountered in Lithuanian side of border;
6.BPT DELAY for 1 hour Russian incursion within boundaries.
c. End State
1.Terrain. TF-48 observation of all bridge crossing points in Area FALCON.
2.Friendly: TF-48 re-supplied and able to conduct further operations.
3.Enemy: If required, Russian incursion force DELAYED 1 hours from G+0 to allow JEF deployment to MDA.
4.Civilian: Minimal collateral damage and disruption to the civilian way of life.
1.No cross border authority.
2.ROE- Card 65 – only fire in self defence of threat to life NOT threat to property.
3.NO CS strikes into Russia
A.COM JEF Intent: Quickly establish presence along border. ID Russian dispositions through patrolling of border area covering all NAI through mixture of Aviation, TUAV & ground C/S. ID fall back defensive positions if have to impose at least a one hour DELAY on any Russian incursion.
A.SoM: Five (5) Phase operation:
I.Phase 1. TF-48, 18, 32 deploy to assigned border areas (FALCON, GEESE & SWALLOW) and establish temp FOBs.
II.Phase 2. Conduct RECON ID ENY AA, MBT, C2, Bridging, Ferry equipment’s for 48 hours.
III.Phase 3. HO/TO & extract to MOB PRICE. BPT DELAY any Russian Incursion Force for sufficient time to enable deployment of TF 45 & 66 to MDA.
IV.Phase 4. BPT to DISRUPT Russian Adv to VILNUS.
V.Phase 5. BPT BREAK engagement with Russian Forces & withdraw further East.
2.SoFires: FIRES & CAS to be primary means of engaging Russian Forces within Lithuanian territory & providing concealment for withdrawal East.
3.Shaping Operations: ID Russian composition and dispositions along border.
C.Decisive Operations: DELAY any Russian incursion for no less than 1 hour.
D.Deception Operation: Establish main RECIN screen at least 2 km from border to conceal strength from Russian ISR.
E.Tactical Risk: Limited ground ISR & RECON to cover entire border; light DELAY force if required; ROE constrains depth engagement; Russian AA not confirmed.
Tasks to Subordinate Units:
1)Rapidly DEPLOY to Area FALCON for 48 hours
2)Establish temp FOB no nearer than 2 km from border area
3)ID Russian composition & disposition along border;
4)ID likely Russian AA into Lithuania;
5)Withdraw to FOB PRICE after 48 hours
6)BPT DELAY Russian incursion no less than 1 hour from G+0
7)BPT EMPLOY FIRES to DISRUPT Russian lead elements.
1)Establish ASP fwd of MDA;
2)BPT resupply, recover & re-equip all TFs on order;
b. Coordinating Instructions:
a.C2 No Change
b.High Value Targets: MT-55, BAT-2, T72b3, PRP-1, SA-19/ZSU 23/4 HIND/HIP
c.FIRES; 6x BTY155mm Direct Spt to TFs. 1 Sqn 587 Attack Sqn 6 x (TIGER AH)
d.ISR; 1 Sqn 45th ISR Coy (4 x UAV)
e.Sustainment: CSS to provide sustainment fwd.
f.Command and Signal:
i.Succession of Command: 0A, OB, A66 (TF-48), B66 (TF-32) C 66 (TF-66).
ii.Location of Key Leaders:OA with TF 32; OB with TF 66.
i.TF HQ : 26000ii.A Coy Combat Team (CT): (-): 46000
Othervise by CO´s orders